Much is said about Bryan Cristante. Many appreciate his personal attributes yet find his football ability lacking. Others view him as a useful piece to the puzzle when used correctly. A smaller group rate him as a solid or even highly competent player and point to a decent set of statistics to back up their claims. Out of all the Roma players in living memory, Cristante draws more varied opinions than most.
In an effort to determine the truth, I will explore Bryan’s statistical profile in some depth, including a few less conventional ways of looking at the metrics as I attempt to bridge the gap between the “eye test” and the raw data.
Debriefing
When analyzing any footballer there are three broad groups of people.
People who hold statistics in high esteem. These individuals view metrics as the only true way to analyze a player's ability and view the “eye test” as misleading at best, and completely inadequate at worst.
People who value the “eye test” above statistics. These individuals believe there are too many ways to interpret the metrics. Furthermore, they point to a loss of context when focusing solely on data.
People who find some value in statistics, but also believe football is too dynamic to rely solely on data. In essence, these individuals are a blend of the first two groups.
Making Comparisons
For the purpose of this analysis, I will compare Cristante to a cache of 22 similar players, most of whom occupy a similar position or role. Several of these players are wanted by Roma, or at least, the Roma fanbase. This cache of players should provide a sufficient sample size to make a proper analysis, but is by no means definitive and does not contain every quality player in the chosen position.
My cache is a diverse mix that covers several major leagues and focuses on players who play deeper in midfield – holding midfielders, defensive midfielders, and deep-lying playmakers. All players have collected more than 1000 minutes this season, most with between 1200-1800 minutes. In a perfect world, I would like the same amount of minutes for each player, but I will make do with reality. All data is from the 2021/2022 season and comes from Fbref.
I have hand-picked statistics I feel encapsulate the skills desired in a deep-lying midfielder. When all is said and done I will put forward a ranking system that combines the data and makes a conclusion where Bryan stands among similar players.
Let's go.
Passing
Part-1 hones in on passing and is the focus of this article. I will analyze various categories related to passing and provide a brief commentary on each. Once I have discussed each category I will end with a summary and rank each player according to the set of metrics presented. All numbers are per 90 minutes unless otherwise noted.
Short Pass Accuracy (Under 15 yards)
What is this metric?
The percentage of attempted passes under 15 years that are successfully completed.
What does it tell us?
How accurate a player’s short passing is.
Analysis
Sitting near the bottom, Bryan is a good distance from the top performers completing 85.4% of his passes between 5 and 15 yards.
While even the bottom half of the group has respectable short pass accuracy, it’s possible to strive for better in such an important position. Across 100 passes, Cristante will complete about 6 less than the top 10. While not egregious, 6 missed placed short passes could certainly come back to haunt Roma if they are in a risky area of the pitch.
Long & Medium Pass Accuracy (Over 15 yards)
What is this metric?
The percentage of attempted passes over 15 years that are successfully completed.
What does it tell us?
How accurate a player’s medium and long passes are.
Analysis
Bryan’s accuracy drops when we look at longer passes, but he moves further up the table compared to his peers.
The top 10 in this category all have accuracy around 85% and higher when passing over 15 yards so Bryan will play about 5 fewer accurate passes over a sample size of 100.
Compared to short passes, we can assume long passes probably advanced the ball out of Roma’s half, so direct danger as a result of a misplaced long pass is less than from a stray short pass in Roma’s half.
Total Accuracy
What is this metric?
The percentage of attempted passes of any distance that are successfully completed.
What does it tell us?
How accurate a player’s passes are.
Analysis
Edging out Milan and Italy starlet Sandro Tonali, Cristante sits in 19th, completing 82.8% of his total passes.
Bryan will complete about 5 less over 100 passes when compared to the top 10. I’d call this a respectable number, but certainly not world-beating compared to his peers.
Progressive Passes
What is this metric?
Passes that occur outside the defensive 40% area of the pitch and advance the ball more than 10-yards from the furthest point in the last six passes, or passes that enter the 18-yard box.
What does it tell us?
Simply put, it helps reveal how forward-thinking (progressive) the player is– do they play the ball sideways, backward, or forwards? Progressive passing helps us understand. A progressive pass does not indicate a direct shot or scoring opportunity, rather, a pass that advances the ball to an area with more attacking potential. It is possible a Progressive Pass produces a direct scoring chance, but more on that later.
Analysis
Cristante sits in third place and is hot on the heels of Inter’s Brozovic.
All things considered, this is one area where Bryan seems to excel. Roma can definitely count on Cristante to move the ball up the pitch.
In an effort to add more context, I then looked at the percentage of total completed passes that were Progressive Passes.
Cristante remains in 3rd place, playing 12.69% of his total completed passes in a progressive fashion. We can see Merino and Xhaka moving up the chart, edging above Bryan. This interpretation of Progressive Passes provides much-needed context as we can observe Rodri dropping from 5th best to 3rd worst when we factor in the number of completed passes. It takes Rodri 78 completed passes to achieve his total of 5.54, and Cristante only needs 49.8 completions to play 6.32 Progressive Passes.
Multiple factors will influence how many passes a player makes per game, and what those passes achieve. Perhaps Rodri would put up the same progressive total in a team where he sees less of the ball. Luckily, we can look back in time and note that, with Atletico Madrid in 2018/2019, he only made 4.24 Progressive Passes from 58 completed passes. In 2018/2019, 7.3% of Rodri’s completed passes were progressive, not far off from the 7.09% on the chart above. I’m certain not every player will follow this pattern exactly, but I believe there is value here.
From this data, we can crudely “guesstimate” that Rodri would only play 3.84 Progressive Passes per game if he was taken out of Pep’s ball retention system and thrown into Roma’s where he would receive less of the ball and play fewer passes.
People will question the value of Bryan’s passes, wondering if they are cross-field distribution to a marked man, or passes that truly make a difference. I will hopefully address these concerns later.
Passes Into The Final Third
What is this metric?
Passes that enter the final third of the opposition's half.
What does it tell us?
Much like Progressive Passing, this stat helps us understand the way in which the player is passing the ball. In theory, Passes Into The Final Third tells us the ball is entering the value area of the pitch, but like Progressive Passes, this metric does not necessarily indicate a direct shooting or scoring opportunity.
Analysis
Here, Cristante sits in 3rd, just behind William Carvalho and Manchester City’s Rodri.
Bryan thrives when it comes to moving the ball into the opposition's final third, a skill that Roma certainly benefits from.
Once again, In an effort to add more context, I then looked at the percentage of total completed passes that entered the final third.
Bryan moves up one place to 2nd with 14.58% of his completed passes regarded as Passes Into The Final Third. Impressive indeed, and nothing to scoff at. The much-heralded Manuel Locatelli and Sandro Tonali lag Bryan by a fair margin.
Passes Into The 18-Yard Box (PPA)
What is this metric?
Passes that enter the opposition’s 18-yard box. By definition, these passes are also considered Progressive Passes.
What does it tell us?
This metric cuts straight to the point and tells us how many passes enter the most dangerous area of the pitch.
Analysis
Here, Cristante is firmly entrenched in the middle of the pack.
Bryan finds himself a good 25% below the top 5, but he’s a long way from the bottom.
Like before, let’s add some context to these numbers and see what percentage of his completed passes enter the 18-yard box.
Cristante remains in the middle and sits in the same position on the table. Not the best, but far from the worst. Interestingly, as we get closer to the opposition's box, Cristante becomes slightly less effective. Keep in mind, we are comparing him to players that occupy the same role, so his position is no excuse.
Passes Leading To A Shot (KP)
What is this metric?
Passes that lead to a direct shot on goal.
What does it tell us?
This metric gets to the heart of how effective a pass is. It helps us understand the creativity and vision of a player, as well as their ability to play a killer pass.
Analysis
Here is our first glimpse of a player's vision and ability to create going forward. We are getting to the heart of some criticism directed towards Cristante – the effectiveness and creativity of his passing.
We can see Bryan is near the bottom of the pack and lagging the top players in my cache by a large margin. Interestingly, Douglas Luiz jumps to 2nd despite the fact he is significantly worse in Progressive Passes. William Carvalho continues to be a stand-out performer across all categories.
From this data we can come to the conclusion it’s not out of the ordinary for a deep-lying midfielder to provide a few passes that lead to a shot on goal, an area Roma is clearly lacking when Cristante assumes the holding midfield position.
As per the usual routine, let’s see what percentage of completed passes are killer passes leading to a shot on goal.
If Roma desires a defensive midfielder that can provide creativity, Cristante will struggle as that man. Once again, all of these players occupy a similar, if not identical role. Roma can certainly ask a little more from their holding midfielder when it comes to killer passes.
Through Balls
What is this metric?
A through ball is defined as a pass played behind the defenders into space.
What does it tell us?
How well the player is able to spot and play a creative ball that could develop into a goal-scoring situation.
Analysis
What becomes clear is holding midfielders are not through ball machines.
There is a large percentage difference between the top 5 and where Cristante sits in 13th. There is also a large percentage difference between 13th and the bottom 5. Roma could do better, but also worse. Interestingly, Casemiro, who is primarily seen as a destroyer, sits top of the table.
Shot Creating Actions (SCA)
What is this metric?
The two offensive actions – Passes, dribbles, or fouls – directly leading to a shot on goal. Similar to KP, yet different enough to justify its own category. You can think of SCA as a direct assist leading to a shot, or an assist to the assist leading to a shot. While not strictly limited to passing, I have included it in this section due to the similar nature of the metric.
What does it tell us?
This metric tells us how effective the player is at helping the team get into shooting positions, whether with a pass, a dribble, or a drawn foul. Much like KP and TB, this stat helps us understand the creativity and vision of a player and their ability to help the team going forward.
Analysis
I have adjusted the data to remove any set piece contributions as some players are not designated set-piece takers for their team. We can observe a continuation of the trend that began with Passes Into The 18-Yard Box (PPA.)
When it comes to overall creativity, Bryan falls behind. While he is not light years away from the middle, he certainly lags the top performers by a fair margin. William Carvalho continues to impress.
Goal Creating Actions (GCA)
What is this metric?
Identical to Shot Creating Actions, but leading to a goal rather than a shot.
What does it tell us?
This metric tells us how effective the player is at helping the team score a goal, whether with a pass, a dribble, or a drawn foul.
Analysis
Once more, I have adjusted the data to only reflect live-ball situations.
The players who occupy a deep midfield position are not studs when it comes to generating Goal Creating Actions, but Bryan finds himself at the absolute bottom with a big goose egg. That William Carvalho, though.
As we look into overall creativity, the shortcomings of Cristante’s game reveal themselves.
Expected Assists (xA)
What is this metric?
The Expected Goal (xG) value which follows the assisting pass. An Expected Goal measures the likelihood a goal will be scored from a certain position on the pitch.
What does it tell us?
This metric continues the trend of creativity and tells us if the player is creating dangerous situations for a teammate via passing.
Analysis
None of the midfielders are amazing in this category, but given their positions, this is no surprise.
Clearly, Bryan is a good distance from the top with Tonali and Jorginho’s xA numbers 3-times higher.
Intercepted & Blocked Passes
What is this metric?
How many attempted passes are intercepted or blocked by the opposition.
What does it tell us?
While seemingly simple, these metrics have several implications. There is a strong, but not conclusive correlation between the amount of blocked or intercepted passes and the player’s SCA or GCA. The more risky passes attempted by the player, the higher the chance of a block or interception occurring. Risky passes are usually required to create threatening situations. Players that play it safe seem to find themselves with fewer blocked or intercepted passes.
Analysis
We can clearly observe that, for the most part, players with higher SCA or GCA rankings find themselves lower on the list.
Bryan finds himself in the middle and we can draw a few conclusions here. Due to his low SCA and GCA scores, but moderately high Int+Block numbers, we can say he either: A) Attempts to be creative but is unable to execute, or B) He is a little careless with the ball.
Passing Conclusions & Final Ranking
Now that we’ve had an in-depth look at his passing, let’s find out where Cristante sits when compared to 22 players who occupy a similar role. In my ranking system, “strikes” refer to the sum of a player’s position on the table from every category analyzed (1st, 5th, 7th, etc.) The more strikes against the player, the lower their ranking, the fewer strikes, the higher the ranking.
When it comes to passing, Bryan finds himself in 18th place with an average table position of 13.94 and 223 strikes, more than double the strikes of leader William Carvalho. Interestingly, Mourinho’s number one target Granit Xhaka sits in 3rd, hot on the heels of Marcelo Brozovic. Frankly, these rankings are an excellent reflection of my eye test, but your mileage may vary.
Keep in mind, all of these players are talented, so sitting 18th is not an indictment of Cristante, but does shed some light on his overall passing ability and creativity. Bologna’s Nicolas Dominguez is an intriguing value option, sitting in 10th and collecting 50 fewer strikes than Bryan.
I hope you have enjoyed this analysis, and stay tuned for the next edition where I will dive into Cristante’s defensive acumen.